Following the mysterious 'drowning' and subsequent purge of Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and the assassination of Qasem Soleimani in collaboration with the US government, Mojtaba Khamenei has been biding his time like the Grim Reaper, waiting for over a year for the removal of Ebrahim Raisi. Now, with Raisi's untimely demise, whether by design, accident, or potentially foreign involvement, the last hurdle to Mojtaba’s rise to Supreme Leader seems to have been cleared. Consequently, Mojtaba now presumably envisions himself 'sitting atop the pulpit of the Supreme Leader'. However, his current predicament resembles the English adage ‘Don't count your chickens before they hatch’ or the Persian tale of 'The Imaginative Dervish and the Jar of Oil,' suggesting he should not be overly confident of securing the Supreme Leader role, as he might inadvertently shatter his current prospects and become another casualty of the ongoing power struggle in what is termed Islamised occupied Iran.

 

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), pejoratively referred to as 'The Islamic Cannibals Corps,' is an economic mafia-like force that has cemented its position through violence, bloodshed, and suppression. The military leaders of the IRGC, also harbour aspirations of absolute control over occupied Iran. notablely, they have neither forgotten nor forgiven the elimination of Qasem Soleimani. Thus, the IRGC could readily instigate chaos under the pretence of crisis management and national security, orchestrating a military coup that could end Mojtaba’s life and those of many regime leaders, potentially leading to the emergence of a 'Second Republic' that positions itself as the nation's saviour and takes control of Iran.

 

Moreover, Mojtaba faces another formidable opponent in Ahmad Alamolhoda, Raisi's father-in-law, who leads the Fatemiyoun forces and is likely to seek retribution with venomous intent. Alamolhoda will not easily permit Mojtaba to ascend to the Supreme Leader's role. Additionally, those IRGC leaders and Assembly of Experts members previously seen as threats to Mojtaba’s leadership have been sidelined but maintain notable influence and power. They are expected to back Alamolhoda in his quest for revenge. It is conceivable that Mojtaba might attempt to preemptively neutralise Alamolhoda, possibly through confinement under some fabricated charge, or even by silencing him permanently, akin to the fate of other adversaries. Notably, two staunch supporters of Soleimani’s leadership following Ali Khamenei’s death [1], Brigadier General Mohammadreza Zahedi and Hojatollah Omidvar (known as Haj Sadegh), both senior commanders of the IRGC Quds Force, were eliminated in an Israeli air strike on the regime's consulate in Damascus. This event could fuel speculations regarding Mojtaba’s alleged connections with the Israelis, suggesting that, akin to his father's conspiracy with Donald Trump in orchestrating Soleimani’s assassination in Iraq, Mojtaba might have collaborated with Benjamin Netanyahu to eliminate Zahedi and Omidvar.

 

Should Mojtaba wish to avoid becoming a victim of his own machinations, he must either promptly eradicate all remaining opponents or relinquish his ambition to become Supreme Leader, particularly given that Khamenei is presumed deceased and no longer able to offer protection.

 

It is also crucial to highlight the likelihood of an IRGC-led coup in response to the regime's failures, a scenario made more plausible by the aftermath of what is described as the regime’s electoral farce, rendering the regime's collapse from within or externally inevitable. IRGC leaders are acutely aware that the regime’s downfall would precipitate their own demise, obliging them to account for 45 years of crimes and betrayals against the Iranian nation in a future Iran. They envisage emulating 'Putin post-Soviet Union' in Iran by establishing a 'Second Republic', particularly as there currently exists no effective opposition capable of overthrowing this or any prospective regime.

 

Furthermore, the adage 'the stomach speaks first' epitomises a harsh reality. Should the IRGC, under the guise of the Second Republic, not only abolish the mandatory hijab but also temporarily relieve economic pressures, thereby enabling the Iranian nation to subsist without fear, even amid oppression and censorship, a considerable portion, including the so-called 'grey class', might cease opposing the IRGC and the new regime. A generation like mine, which has opposed the regime for 45 years in the hope of securing Iran's freedom and a return to our homeland, may be forced to forsake our aspirations, much like Mojtaba should consider abandoning his dream of becoming Supreme Leader.

 

Therefore, for those of us opposing the regime and advocating for Iran’s freedom, prosperity, and dignity, a change in approach is imperative. We must set aside 45 years of what has often been dismissed as inconsequential political activism, cease our individualistic posturing, boasting, self-congratulation, and sectarian behaviours, and unite under a single flag and leadership, namely, that of the Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi. We must consolidate and organise our resistance forces against the Islamo-fascist tyranny and establish a 'truly effective national opposition' that not only champions a 'united, single-nation Iran with the national flag of the Lion and Sun' but also incites an uprising.

 

Let us contemplate Iran and its future, as critically challenging months lie ahead.

 

 

Footnotes:

1 – For the avoidance of ambiguity, I do not consider the individual currently presented as Ali Khamenei to be the original person. I take the view that the original Khamenei died in late 2022 and that the person whom the Islamic regime now presents publicly under that name is a body double. Nevertheless, for the purposes of the present analysis, and in the absence of conclusive proof regarding the death of the original Khamenei, the individual in question is referred to throughout as Ali Khamenei  for the sake of terminological consistency. For further discussion of this claim, see Suren-Pahlav, (2022).

 

 

References:

• Suren-Pahlav, S. (2022) ‘Khamenei Dies at 83: Power Vacuum, Predatory Struggle and an Impending National Catastrophe’, suren-pahlav.com (11 September). Available at: https://www.suren-pahlav.com/en/khamenei-dies-at-83-power-vacuum-predatory-struggle-and-an-impending-national-catastrophe.html (Accessed: 20 May 2024).